{
  "handle": "CrackpotProbe",
  "ref": "CrackpotProbe#c9df",
  "stub": "c9df",
  "semaId": "sema:CrackpotProbe#mh:SHA-256:c9df130722898c1085277579d07db4b4cd0c1505bf6b9a27659a188d47ee0b4e",
  "layer": "Society",
  "category": "Coordination",
  "gloss": "Ask for someone's most crackpot belief and offer one honest objection, to see how they think where consensus no longer filters them",
  "mechanism": "A belief is crackpot when its scope outruns its failure conditions. It claims to hold literally, often across domains, and names no observation that would refute it. Distance from consensus is not the measure: a fringe belief that states its failure conditions is speculation. In the terms of a {{computational_channel}}, a person's self-perceived crackpot belief lies in their own rejected set. Their thinking generated it, the standards they respect reject it, and they kept it anyway. Accepted beliefs mostly show the shared acceptor, the consensus a person has adopted. A belief kept against one's own acceptor shows the generator: how the person thinks when nothing filters them, and what they value enough to keep at a reputational cost. Asking \"what is your most crackpot theory?\" invites them to show that region. One honest objection completes the probe. Whether they rebuild the belief on the objection, defend it or drop it shows how they reason under challenge, which the belief alone does not.",
  "invariants": [
    "The holder names the belief, or accepts the name when someone else proposes it; it is offered, not diagnosed",
    "The belief is read for what it shows about how the holder thinks before it is judged for truth",
    "Crackpottery is measured as scope against stated failure conditions, not as distance from consensus",
    "One objection is offered, and the holder's response is part of the result",
    "Expected future interaction is present, as in {{cooperation_horizon}}; strangers give a safe answer"
  ],
  "failureModes": [
    "Performed crackpottery: a curated, likeable oddity that shows the holder's acceptor, not their generator",
    "Turning the answer into a test that ranks or dismisses the holder, so every later answer is safe",
    "Debunking instead of objecting once, which ends the probe before the holder's reasoning shows",
    "The asker's existing notes on the person decide which belief gets called most crackpot, as in {{context_confirmation_bias}}",
    "Niche is relative to position: a belief that is fringe in the holder's field may be standard in another, so self-perceived niche-ness measures social position as much as the idea"
  ],
  "ring": 2,
  "tier": 2,
  "aliases": {
    "context_confirmation_bias": "ContextConfirmationBias",
    "computational_channel": "ComputationalChannel",
    "cooperation_horizon": "CooperationHorizon"
  },
  "buildsOn": [
    {
      "handle": "ContextConfirmationBias",
      "type": "references",
      "alias": "context_confirmation_bias",
      "url": "/knowledge-graph/ContextConfirmationBias/",
      "json": "/knowledge-graph/ContextConfirmationBias.json"
    },
    {
      "handle": "ComputationalChannel",
      "type": "references",
      "alias": "computational_channel",
      "url": "/knowledge-graph/ComputationalChannel/",
      "json": "/knowledge-graph/ComputationalChannel.json"
    },
    {
      "handle": "CooperationHorizon",
      "type": "references",
      "alias": "cooperation_horizon",
      "url": "/knowledge-graph/CooperationHorizon/",
      "json": "/knowledge-graph/CooperationHorizon.json"
    }
  ],
  "usedBy": [],
  "sources": {
    "research": [],
    "works": [],
    "homePage": false
  },
  "url": "/knowledge-graph/CrackpotProbe/",
  "graphUrl": "/knowledge-graph#CrackpotProbe",
  "directory": "/knowledge-graph/patterns.json"
}