{
  "handle": "InformationDividend",
  "ref": "InformationDividend#c78d",
  "stub": "c78d",
  "semaId": "sema:InformationDividend#mh:SHA-256:c78d682d828c0e7ff7599c5f3bd7f7d09e7f6b749766e5404a3c009ecda3c189",
  "layer": "Mind",
  "category": "Strategy",
  "gloss": "Acting on short-range information pays even when the long-range forecast is exactly right",
  "mechanism": "An agent that relocates on daily information collects a payoff that survives a perfectly accurate long-range forecast, because a ten-day forecast of 80% sun still does not say which hours are sunny. The dividend requires two conditions: the short-range distribution is non-fractal, so it is not a shrunk copy of the long-range one, and transition costs are low enough to be worth paying. Plan high-level quantities as precisely as possible and leave everything below free to move.",
  "invariants": [
    "The dividend does not depend on uncertainty about the long-range forecast",
    "No dividend exists when the short-range forecast is a scaled copy of the long-range one",
    "Transition costs must be below the difference between short- and long-range information"
  ],
  "failureModes": [
    "Locking scope to protect an estimate and forfeiting the dividend the estimate was meant to enable",
    "Adding inertia and smoothing to reliable information, the right response only to noisy information",
    "Chasing short-range signals when transition costs exceed the gain"
  ],
  "ring": 1,
  "tier": 2,
  "aliases": {},
  "buildsOn": [],
  "usedBy": [
    {
      "handle": "TransitionHub",
      "type": "references",
      "alias": "information_dividend",
      "url": "/knowledge-graph/TransitionHub/",
      "json": "/knowledge-graph/TransitionHub.json"
    },
    {
      "handle": "OptionVectorPlanning",
      "type": "references",
      "alias": "information_dividend",
      "url": "/knowledge-graph/OptionVectorPlanning/",
      "json": "/knowledge-graph/OptionVectorPlanning.json"
    }
  ],
  "sources": {
    "research": [
      {
        "slug": "on_the_origin_of_risk",
        "title": "On the Origin of Risk",
        "url": "/research/on_the_origin_of_risk/",
        "meetups": [],
        "people": [
          {
            "name": "Arne Steemers",
            "url": "/community#arne-steemers"
          },
          {
            "name": "Adam Timlett",
            "url": "/community#adam-timlett"
          }
        ]
      }
    ],
    "works": [],
    "homePage": false
  },
  "url": "/knowledge-graph/InformationDividend/",
  "graphUrl": "/knowledge-graph#InformationDividend",
  "directory": "/knowledge-graph/patterns.json"
}